CITB outlook points to 206,000-worker need

CITB has published its Construction Workforce Outlook 2026-2030, setting out expected construction demand and the workforce required to meet it over the next five years.

The annual outlook forecasts a subdued short-term picture before growth strengthens from 2027 onwards. UK construction output is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2026, then grow by 1.8% in 2027, 2.8% in 2028, 2.3% in 2029, and 2.1% in 2030.

Infrastructure, public new housing, and private new housing are identified as major areas of growth between 2026 and 2030. Infrastructure output is forecast to grow by an average of 2.5% per year, public new housing by 3.6% per year, and private new housing by 2.5% per year.

The UK construction workforce is forecast to rise from 2,606,380 in 2025 to around 2,681,800 by 2030. In England, the workforce is forecast to increase from 2,228,540 in 2025 to 2,298,080 by 2030.

CITB estimates that construction will need an average of 41,200 extra workers each year between 2026 and 2030. That is equivalent to 1.6% of the 2025 workforce each year, or around 206,000 additional workers over the five-year period.

The extra-worker requirement reflects more than headline growth. It includes the need to replace workers leaving the industry, support rising output, and maintain workforce levels as people move into and out of construction. Demand will vary by region, occupation, and project mix.

The outlook forms part of CITB’s wider Industry Picture, which examines construction’s current and future circumstances, skills needs, and areas where targeted action can have the greatest effect. CITB says too few people are entering construction, too many experienced workers are leaving, and productivity improvements have not been sufficient to close the gap.

Skills development is already moving higher up the sector agenda, from government funding commitments to trade competitions and apprenticeship routes. CITB’s SkillBuild 2026 national finalists underline the continued role of visible practical pathways in attracting new entrants into construction trades.

Tim Balcon, CITB chief executive, said the latest outlook highlights where construction skills demand is expected to grow and provides evidence for workforce and skills planning during a period of opportunity and challenge.

Employers are being asked to recruit and train while parts of the market remain uncertain. Short-term activity is still affected by cost pressure, planning delays, weak private housing activity, and cautious client budgets. Longer-term commitments around housing, infrastructure, retrofit, energy, and building safety point in the opposite direction, towards sustained demand for skilled labour.

That mismatch has long affected construction. Employers often make recruitment decisions based on current workload and cashflow, while the industry’s skills requirement is shaped by future pipelines. When companies wait for demand to become obvious before recruiting, labour shortages are already embedded in project programmes and tender prices.

Productivity will also influence whether the workforce gap can be narrowed. Additional workers are needed, but workforce growth alone will not remove delivery constraints if output per worker remains weak. Modern methods of construction, digital planning, better logistics, standardised design, improved supervision, and more efficient procurement can all help, but none removes the need for competent trades, engineers, site managers, supervisors, and specialists.

Regional variation will be significant. A national figure of 206,000 extra workers can conceal local shortages in bricklaying, carpentry, roofing, plastering, plant operation, electrical work, civil engineering, and site management. Housing growth in one region and infrastructure investment in another can create different labour pressures at the same time.

The government’s £600m construction training investment, Youth Guarantee, and Jobs Guarantee are intended to support the industry’s skills base. Their effectiveness will depend on whether training connects directly with employers, live sites, apprenticeships, and real progression routes. Training capacity without jobs does not retain entrants, while jobs without structured training do not build a future workforce.

CITB’s outlook gives the sector a five-year evidence base for planning. The harder task now sits with employers, training providers, clients, and government: turning that forecast into hiring decisions, training places, retention programmes, and productivity improvements before the next growth cycle is already underway.