Scottish infrastructure operators commission climate risk study

Scottish infrastructure operators commission climate risk study

Scottish infrastructure operators have commissioned research into interconnected climate risks. The study will map dependencies among transport, power, water and communications services before testing disruption scenarios in local case studies.


IN Brief:

  • The CRIS forum has commissioned an assessment of climate risks shared across Scottish infrastructure networks.
  • The National Centre for Resilience will manage the research procurement and coordinate the study planned over 12 months.
  • A dependency register and local case studies will inform future adaptation planning; no construction programme is approved.

Network Rail is among the Scottish infrastructure operators commissioning research into the effects of climate hazards on connected transport, energy, water and communications services. The Climate Ready Infrastructure Scotland Forum (CRIS) announced the joint programme on 20 October, with a shared dependency register and local case studies intended to identify where disruption in one system could prevent others from operating or recovering.

The National Centre for Resilience, hosted by the University of Glasgow, will manage the commission for the funding organisations. Its delivery will be tendered through Public Contracts Scotland, after which the selected research supplier is expected to carry out the work over 12 months. Network Rail, Scottish Water, ScotRail, Openreach, electricity network operators and public bodies are involved, supported by the Scottish Government.

Infrastructure resilience is normally assessed through the condition and exposure of assets within a particular network. A road authority can model flood depths beside an underbridge, while a power distributor assesses the exposure of substations and a railway operator inspects the drainage, embankments and electrical systems along its route. The separate assessments may miss dependencies that determine whether an undamaged asset can still perform its function.

A railway signalling location might withstand a storm but lose the external electricity supply needed to operate. Floodwater could meanwhile close an approach road that maintenance teams require to reach a damaged pumping station. A communications failure can delay control of utilities, while blocked transport routes can interrupt the movement of repair equipment. These are examples of potential connections between networks, not findings of failures at specified Scottish sites.

CRIS intends to describe those relationships in what it calls a shared register of infrastructure dependencies. Rather than assembling only a list of exposed bridges, cables or treatment works, the register would show which services rely on one another and where the loss of a component could produce wider disruption. Its practical value will depend on the quality and level of detail operators can share and on distinguishing critical links from those with alternatives.

Different types of redundancy change the consequences of an outage. An electrical asset with a second available feed is not exposed in the same way as one without it, and a diversionary road may be unsuitable for heavy equipment even when passenger cars can still pass. Recovery planning also depends on whether repair crews can reach a site, whether communications remain available and how competing restoration tasks are prioritised.

The place-based case studies will then test combinations of hazards and service interruptions against the circumstances of selected Scottish communities. Terrain, watercourses, weather exposure, asset location and access arrangements may all affect how an incident propagates. The commission has not yet identified the locations to be studied or published forecasts for particular communities, so individual exposure or failure probabilities cannot be inferred from the launch.

Network Rail’s weather resilience work already deals with hazards ranging from intense rainfall and flooding to earthworks movement and high temperatures. The additional research takes a broader view of services that railway operations depend upon and services that rely on rail or road access. Scotland’s climate adaptation policy also recognises that assets constructed for earlier environmental conditions can remain in use for decades as the nature and frequency of hazards change.

Where the research identifies a critical dependency, possible responses will vary with the physical asset and the service provided. Drainage capacity, slope protection, flood barriers, alternative power connections or revised access arrangements may be relevant to different sites. Operational arrangements such as shared emergency communications and coordinated restoration plans may also be considered. No specific engineering programme, capital allocation or construction contractor has been authorised by this research commission.

The forum was launched in May 2025 to bring infrastructure operators, government and academia into a common adaptation programme. Among the October funding partners were Scottish Water, Transport Scotland, the Met Office, Openreach, ScotRail and electricity distribution and transmission organisations. Their different network information and operating responsibilities will be needed to establish how disruptions can cross organisational boundaries.

The research procurement is the next formal step. Once a supplier is appointed, the assessment planned over 12 months will produce evidence for participating organisations to use in their adaptation decisions. Any protective works would require separate technical design, prioritisation, budgets, permissions and delivery arrangements; the current award is for identifying the interdependencies that those decisions must consider.



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