IN Brief:
- The MPA expects a fifth consecutive annual fall in heavy construction materials demand in 2026, with meaningful recovery unlikely before 2028.
- Its separately published first-half sales figures show ready-mixed concrete down 9.3%, sand and gravel down 8.3%, and mortar down 5.1% year on year.
- The regional outlook identifies energy, water and sewerage infrastructure as potential demand drivers, particularly in Scotland, the East of England and Wales.
The Mineral Products Association (MPA) expects British demand for heavy construction materials to decline for a fifth consecutive year in 2026, with a meaningful recovery unlikely before 2028. Its newly reported Regional Overview of Construction and Mineral Products Markets in Great Britain assesses how prolonged weakness in housebuilding and the uneven timing of infrastructure work are affecting producers across different parts of the country.
The assessment spans nine English regions, Scotland and Wales and covers aggregates, concrete, asphalt and mortar. These markets cannot be interpreted solely through national construction output: a pipeline of planned homes may generate little immediate demand for masonry or concrete, while a road resurfacing contract draws principally on asphalt and aggregates. Regional construction programmes and the distribution of quarries, batching plants and customers determine which producers receive actual orders.
New housing remains a substantial constraint on sales of ready-mixed concrete, sand and gravel, and mortar. Concrete is used in foundations and structural floors, while mortar is consumed as masonry is laid; both depend on sites progressing through physical construction rather than simply securing consent. A delayed housing start therefore postpones purchases early in the project sequence, with follow-on material orders arriving only if the work advances.
The MPA’s separately published first-half sales data show how severe that weakness has become. Ready-mixed concrete volumes were 9.3% lower in the first six months of 2026 than a year earlier, sand and gravel sales fell 8.3%, and mortar volumes declined 5.1%. These are measured changes in member sales for a defined period, not estimates of the full-year position or numerical forecasts for the individual regions in the new assessment.
The materials do not move in lockstep. Over the same six-month period, asphalt sales increased 3.2% against a weak prior-year comparison, and crushed rock rose 0.7%. Road maintenance and specific civil engineering contracts can provide work for asphalt plants or aggregate suppliers even as concrete plants serving residential development operate below previous volumes. Small increases in selected products do not change the wider evidence of subdued mineral demand.
Construction programmes consume materials at different stages and in markedly different combinations. Highway resurfacing relies on asphalt aggregates and bitumen production, while water projects may require granular bedding, pipe surrounds, concrete chambers and structures, with quantities dependent on route and specification. Energy projects can require substantial foundation and access-road materials, but the volume ordered locally depends on the works package, design and construction sequence. A headline project value does not establish a corresponding mineral-products tonnage.
The regional outlook identifies energy generation, water and sewerage investment as possible sources of additional orders. Scotland, the East of England and Wales are expected to receive support from these infrastructure markets, although the scale and timing of production depend on when funded work reaches site. A consented energy scheme, for example, may generate demand for haul roads, concrete foundations and drainage at different stages; the source evidence does not establish regional tonnage forecasts for those packages.
Mineral supply is also strongly local. Aggregates are bulky and comparatively low-value materials, so transport distance, quarry access and the location of processing plants affect delivered cost and logistics. Some products can move efficiently by rail or sea, while many sites remain dependent on road vehicles for the final journey. A large infrastructure scheme in one region does not automatically relieve low demand at a concrete plant or quarry serving a different area.
Producers and mineral planning authorities must make decisions on a longer timescale than many individual contracts. Aggregate extraction depends on permitted reserves and accessible deposits, while concrete batching and asphalt production require plant, maintained equipment, environmental controls and suitable haulage. A possible infrastructure recovery may support investment planning, but production capacity cannot always be expanded as soon as a contractor issues its first purchase order.
The contrast with the MPA’s previous regional outlook is pronounced. Its 2024 edition anticipated a demand recovery beginning in 2025, but subsequent sales figures did not bear that out. The newly reported 2026 assessment points instead to a meaningful improvement no earlier than 2028. That is a revised industry outlook, not a verified timetable for individual projects or a guarantee of regional growth; it will be tested against the pace of site starts and actual mineral product deliveries.
Maintaining extraction sites, batching capacity, skilled workers and distribution fleets during an extended downturn has consequences for how quickly orders can be fulfilled when activity increases. Housing creates recurrent local demand across several product categories, while major energy and water schemes can produce concentrated orders in particular locations. With the MPA now looking beyond 2027 for a meaningful recovery, the decisive near-term indicators will be construction starts, procurement of defined works packages and measured deliveries rather than the announced value of projects alone.
