IN Brief:
- BCIS expects civil engineering costs to rise 14% and tender prices 22% by 4Q2030.
- Electricity remains the strongest area of activity, with rail work also supported by Oxford, Cambridge, and early Northern Powerhouse Rail planning.
- Infrastructure output is forecast to grow 15% between 2025 and 2030, although energy, commodities, and labour remain key risks.
BCIS expects civil engineering costs to rise by 14% over the next five years to 4Q2030, while tender prices for civil engineering work are forecast to increase by 22% over the same period. New infrastructure work output is forecast to grow by 15% between 2025 and 2030, extending a recovery after a sharp contraction in 2024.
The latest outlook sits against a larger project backdrop. BCIS said momentum at the start of the quarter had been supported by the updated National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority pipeline, which includes £718bn of projected investment. Its Civil Engineering Tender Price Index panel also reported strong activity in the electricity sub-sector, ongoing work in Oxford and Cambridge, and early planning stages for Northern Powerhouse Rail.
That stronger pipeline is being tempered by renewed uncertainty in energy and commodity markets. BCIS said recent developments in the Middle East had increased volatility, raising the prospect of more persistent inflationary pressure across fuel, transport, and energy-intensive materials. The result is a market in which workloads may improve, while pricing risk remains firmly in view.
Labour remains another pressure point. BCIS expects labour costs to keep rising as infrastructure output grows and skilled availability remains constrained, a combination likely to keep pressure on civils procurement even where activity stays positive. The spread between forecast cost inflation and tender-price inflation also points to contractors continuing to price risk hard into future work.
Further details on the forecast are available from BCIS.
