IN Brief:
- Headline workloads net balance improves to -6% in Q4 2025.
- Infrastructure strengthens to +12%, while private housing slips to -12%.
- Twelve-month expectations firm, but credit conditions stay restrictive.
The latest RICS UK Construction Monitor suggests the industry ended 2025 in a holding pattern, with headline workloads broadly unchanged but forward indicators pointing to a gentle improvement into 2026.
At an aggregate level, the headline workloads indicator moved marginally from -8% in Q3 to -6% in Q4, signalling that activity remains subdued rather than contracting sharply. The split between new work and repair and maintenance continues to define the market: new work improved from -13% to -8%, while repair and maintenance rose from +2% to +7%, reinforcing the view that lifecycle spend is carrying more weight than fresh starts.
By sector, infrastructure remains the clear outperformer. The infrastructure workloads net balance strengthened from +8% to +12% in Q4, while other public works edged into positive territory at +2% after -4% in Q3. Private-side indicators remain under pressure: private housing weakened further from -10% to -12%, with private commercial at -9% and private industrial at -6%, both still negative despite slight improvement.
Within infrastructure, RICS points to energy as the strongest sub-sector, with the net balance rising from +29% to +41% in Q4. Rail is no longer the laggard it was earlier in the year, moving from -5% to +1%, but the reading suggests stability rather than a major upswing.
The forward-looking picture is firmer than the backward-looking one. Twelve-month workload expectations rose from +9% to +17%, with employment expectations up from +10% to +14%. Profit margin expectations remain negative at -12%, and respondents continue to indicate that expected construction cost increases are likely to outstrip tender prices, a dynamic that tends to sharpen commercial scrutiny of risk allowances, prelims, and programme.
Constraints remain familiar. Credit conditions are still described as restrictive, with a net balance of -19% in Q4. Financial constraints were cited by around 60% of respondents as a limiting factor, closely followed by planning and regulatory pressures at 59%, alongside continuing references to delays linked to the Building Safety Regulator. Labour shortages and insufficient demand remain elevated, while weather conditions became a more prominent limiter versus the previous quarter.
For 2026, the data does not suggest a rapid rebound, but it does point to a market where infrastructure, related public works, and repair and maintenance are offering more dependable workload than private-led new build, particularly in housing.
